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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| BE | Omarion Hampton | PHI | 12.1 | 12.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | BOOM | N/A |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Keenan Allen (Elite ceiling (37 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent adds needed. Hampton's return fills RB depth. Monitor Hunter Henry (NE bye) for Week 15. MHJ (heel) and McMillan (CAR bye) remain out.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 14 sees us trailing 24.0-17.3 after Jameson Williams' strong 17.3-point Thursday at Dallas. The big news: Omarion Hampton was ACTIVATED from IR on Saturday and will start Monday vs PHI. With Hampton's 30.7% boom upside in a high-scoring environment (~46.5 game total), he replaces Spears at RB2. Brissett's 5-game hot streak at QB and JSN as WR2 consensus round out a projected 131.9 total. Win probability remains strong at 82%.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 19.0 | 15.3 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 16.1 | 16.4 | 16.0 | +0.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | ✓ 28.1 | 20.9 | 22.0 | +6.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 7.4 | 17.1 | 17.0 | -9.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 7.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | -2.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 0.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | ✓ 14.0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | +4.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 6.0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 19.3 | 17.6 | 18.0 | +1.3 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 11.0 | 10.3 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 12.1 | 12.5 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | ✓ 6.3 | 17.9 | 20.1 | -11.6 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | ✓ 0.3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | -5.0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | ✓ 7.7 | 3.2 | 7.8 | +4.5 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | ✓ 3.6 | 6.7 | 9.2 | -3.1 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | ✓ 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -4.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | ✓ 14.1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | +4.1 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 0.6 | 12.8 | 11.9 | -12.2 |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | +15.1 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 15.0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | +9.8 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 7.9 | --- | +1.1 |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 20.4 | 14.7 | --- | +5.7 |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | ✓ 3.0 | 3.7 | --- | -0.7 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 29.5% boom agrees. BUT cold weather (20F) + snow concerns for passing. CHI #8 vs QB. Selecting MODERATE. 18.0 within MOD [9.1-24.1]. Bench behind Brissett's hot streak.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 8 | ECR: 10
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 19.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM[18-26]@22. XGB: 22.5% boom, 34.6% bust - DISAGREES (predicts bust). LLM trusts MC due to Brissett's 5-game hot streak (18+ each). LAR mid-tier defense. High game total (47.5). Mode: BOOM. 19.0 within BOOM [18-26].
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 17
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 35% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 22% BOOM[17-28], 61% MOD[8-20]. XGB: 9.8% boom, 52.9% bust - HIGH BUST risk. TB 8.5pt favorite = positive game script. But TB #5 vs RB is tough. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD [8-20].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 5 | ECR: 9
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 61% MOD[4-14]. XGB: 13.7% boom, 39% bust. Lowest game total (33.5) in NFL. CLE #9 vs RB. Cold weather. ECR #45. Selecting MODERATE but low-end. 8.0 within MOD [4-14].
Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: 45
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 12.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30.7% boom [14.6-29.6], 40% moderate [5-17], 29.3% bust. ACTIVATED from IR Dec 7 - first game back limits ceiling. PHI allows 25th vs RB. Game total 46.5 favorable. Splitting with Vidal but bell-cow upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.5 (within [5-17]).
Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 25 | ECR: 22
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM[18.7-31.3], 49% BUST[-3.8-8.2]. XGB: 15% boom, 49% bust. Handcuff role unclear with AJ Dillon. CHI 17th vs RB. Low floor, unpredictable usage. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 17 | ECR: 95
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Singletary not playing - NYG inactive/limited role.
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 25%
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM[22-36], 43% MOD[12-26]. XGB: 11.6% boom, 24.5% bust - moderate. ATL #15 vs WR (average). ECR WR2 = elite consensus. Selecting high MODERATE. 22.0 within MOD [12-26].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 2
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: Carolina Panthers on bye Week 14
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Ruled OUT with heel injury per ESPN/CBS Sports.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% BOOM[18-30], 29% MOD[10-20]. XGB: 27.2% boom, 36.6% bust - split. Cold + windy (16mph) concerns. HOU defense average. ECR WR5. Selecting MODERATE due to weather. 17.0 within MOD [10-20].
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 17.3 (BOOM)
Reasoning: Thursday game COMPLETE: 17.3 pts actual (52-yd TD at Dallas). Above ESPN proj of 13.8.
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[0-14]. XGB: 11.0% boom, 53.1% bust - AGREES on bust. PHI #6 vs WR is tough. Herbert hand injury. ECR WR28 (low). Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST [0-14].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 6 | ECR: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 52% moderate [3-13], 34% bust. CHI struggling offense, benched for better options.
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 36% BOOM[11-19], 35% MOD[5-13]. XGB: 25.7% boom, 28.2% bust - balanced. NO big underdog = passing likely. TB average vs TE. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 at top of MOD [5-13].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 26% | Bust 28% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: New England Patriots on bye Week 14
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 29.5% boom agrees. BUT cold weather (20F) + snow concerns for passing. CHI #8 vs QB. Selecting MODERATE. 18.0 within MOD [9.1-24.1]. Bench behind Brissett's hot streak.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%
Notes: Carolina Panthers on bye Week 14
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%
Notes: Ruled OUT with heel injury per ESPN/CBS Sports.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 39%
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 61% MOD[4-14]. XGB: 13.7% boom, 39% bust. Lowest game total (33.5) in NFL. CLE #9 vs RB. Cold weather. ECR #45. Selecting MODERATE but low-end. 8.0 within MOD [4-14].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 51%
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM[18.7-31.3], 49% BUST[-3.8-8.2]. XGB: 15% boom, 49% bust. Handcuff role unclear with AJ Dillon. CHI 17th vs RB. Low floor, unpredictable usage. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[0-14]. XGB: 11.0% boom, 53.1% bust - AGREES on bust. PHI #6 vs WR is tough. Herbert hand injury. ECR WR28 (low). Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST [0-14].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: New England Patriots on bye Week 14
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 25%
Notes: Singletary not playing - NYG inactive/limited role.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%
Notes: MC: 52% moderate [3-13], 34% bust. CHI struggling offense, benched for better options.
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 | MODERATE | 48% | 37% | 16% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 | MODERATE | 27% | 46% | 27% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 9.1 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23% | 52% | 25% | MEDIUM | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 | MODERATE | 15% | 55% | 30% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 | BUST | 12% | 34% | 54% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | MODERATE | 12% | 42% | 46% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 | BUST | 11% | 27% | 62% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 8.9 | BUST | 11% | 26% | 63% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 | BUST | 10% | 34% | 57% | LOW |
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 50% | 19% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.1 | 33% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.3 | 32% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.7 | 28% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.3 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 27% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 6.0 | 26% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 7.3 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.3 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 15.5 | 19% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.7 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.1 | 17% | 53% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15.5 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 19% | 50% | |
| Kyler Murray | 17.1 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 14% | 49% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 50% | 19% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 27% | 26% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.3 | BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% | 21% | 37% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 47% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.9 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 49% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.1 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 9% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.3 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.7 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.4 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 12% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 9.2 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% | 10% | 58% | |
| Tre Tucker | 10.1 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 42% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.6 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.3 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 32% | 22% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.7 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 28% | 26% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.4 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 8% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.1 | 33% | 42% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.1 | 17% | 53% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 6.0 | 26% | 31% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 7.3 | 22% | 43% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 44.3% | 34.7% | 21.1% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | --- | 0.0 | OUT | 36.7% | 43.8% | 19.5% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 29.5% | 49.6% | 20.9% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 27.2% | 36.2% | 36.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 25.7% | 46.1% | 28.2% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 19.0 | BOOM | 22.5% | 42.8% | 34.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 13.8% | 29.2% | 57.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 13.7% | 47.3% | 39.0% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 12.7% | 36.5% | 50.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 11.6% | 63.9% | 24.5% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 11.1% | 36.6% | 52.3% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 11.0% | 35.9% | 53.1% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 12.5 | MODERATE | 10.8% | 33.9% | 55.3% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.8 | 17.3 | BOOM | 10.7% | 38.1% | 51.2% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 9.8% | 37.3% | 52.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 8.7% | 31.2% | 60.1% |
Win Probability
Floor: +1.0 pts | Median: +39.4 pts | Ceiling: +76.9 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Nick Chubb | OUT | 6.9 | Christian McCaffrey | 25.3 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 19.0 | 4.3-28.4 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 16.1 | 4.4-24.4 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 12.5 | 2.6-24.1 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 28.1 | 5.6-29.8 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 7.4 | 7.1-27.9 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.3 | 4.2-25.5 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 7.8 | 2.6-17.0 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.0-17.7 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 14.0 | 4.6-16.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 19.3 | 6.5-28.2 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 6.7 | 2.1-19.9 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.1-16.5 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 5.0-25.8 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 0.7-18.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.3-22.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.1 | 9.9-31.5 | ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | LOW | 7.5 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.8 | 0.5-17.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.9 | 4.1-22.7 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.6-18.7 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.2 | 2.1-15.7 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.6-18.4 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-21.2 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 8.9 | 3.3-16.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.5-27.0 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.4-35.1 | ↑15+: 72% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.1-20.6 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.2-15.8 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.6-19.9 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-16.0 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% | |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.5 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 31% @ 22.1 | 40% @ 11.0 | 29% @ 3.9 | 12.3 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
No urgent adds needed. Hampton's return fills RB depth. Monitor Hunter Henry (NE bye) for Week 15. MHJ (heel) and McMillan (CAR bye) remain out.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_049 (2025-11-30)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -19.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +11.8 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 9.5 | 19.0 | +9.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +7.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Emanuel Wilson | 5.6 | 8.9 | 1.4 | -7.5 |
| Our Team | TE | Evan Engram | 8.1 | 7.5 | 13.9 | +6.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Keenan Allen | 12.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | -2.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -1.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 17.2 | 20.0 | 19.6 | -0.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.